Thus there is no timely, independent measure of the partisan balance that polls could use for a baseline adjustment. These shifts in party identification are essential to understanding the dynamics of American politics. In the months after the Sept. In all of those instances, had we tried to standardize the balance of party identification in our surveys to some prior levels, our surveys would have fundamentally missed what were significant changes in public opinion.
In every presidential election since , our final pre-election surveys have aligned with the actual vote outcome, because we measured rising Democratic or Republican fortunes in each year. In short, because party identification is so tightly intertwined with candidate preferences, any effort to constrain or affix the partisan balance of a survey would certainly smooth out any peaks and valleys in our survey trends, but would also lead us to miss more fundamental changes in the electorate that may be occurring.
In effect, standardizing, smoothing, or otherwise tinkering with the balance of party identification in a survey is tantamount to saying we know how well each candidate is doing before the survey is conducted. What follows is a more detailed overview of the properties of party identification — how it changes over the short- and long-term, and at both the aggregate and individual level.
It also includes a detailed discussion of the distinction between registered voters and likely voters, and why trying to estimate likely voters at this point in the election cycle is problematic. Public opinion researchers generally consider party affiliation to be a psychological identification with one of the two major political parties. It is not the same thing as party registration.
Not all states allow voters to register by party, and even in states that do, some people may be reluctant to publicly identify their politics by registering with a party, while others may feel they have to register with a party to participate in primaries that exclude unaffiliated voters. Thus, while party affiliation and party registration is likely to be the same for many people, it will not be the same for everyone. Party affiliation is derived from a question, typically found at the end of a survey questionnaire, in which respondents are asked how they regard themselves in politics at the moment.
As the wording suggests, this question is intended to capture how people think of themselves currently, and people can change their personal allegiance easily. We continually see evidence of this in surveys that ask the same people about their party affiliation at two different points in time.
In a post-election survey we conducted in November , we interviewed voters with whom we had spoken less than one month earlier, in mid-October. We also see party affiliation changing in understandable ways over time, in response to major events and political circumstances. In addition, unlike national parameters for characteristics such as gender, age, education and race, which can be derived from large government surveys, there is no independent estimate of party affiliation.
Some critics argue that polls should be weighted to the distribution of party affiliation as documented by the exit polls in the most recent election. But the use of exit poll statistics for weighting current surveys has several problems. First of all, a review of exit polls from the past four elections including midterm elections shows the same kind of variability in party affiliation that telephone opinion polls show.
Thus, most Republicans developed many reasons to vote for McCain, and most Democrats many reasons to prefer Obama. Please enable JavaScript in your browser. JavasScript is required to use the core functionality of this site including searching, downloading data, and depositing data. Party Identification Party identification is an important attitude that influences the vote Campbell et al. This increasing lack of party identification combined with the difficulties that arise with issue voting has resulted in voting decisions based on the personality and demographic traits of candidates.
Candidates are most often evaluated on their party affiliation and stances on prominent issues. However, when the aforementioned problems with party identification and issue voting arise, the personal characteristics of candidates may enter into campaign strategies and voting decisions.
Many candidates utilize demographic factors to appeal to voters. For example, candidates may emphasize the importance of their families and their upbringing in humble middle-class households as a way to relate to a wide segment of American voters.
Other candidates appeal to voters through shared religious affiliations. Candidates may also emphasize their personality traits by showing how their actions have demonstrated their trustfulness and hard work. Michelle Obama at the Democratic National Convention : First Lady, Michelle Obama, appealed to voters by emphasizing the humble background of her husband during her speech at the Democratic National Convention.
At the same time, candidates also tend to emphasize the demographic and personality traits of their opponents that will create mistrust among voters. For example, candidates often air advertisements that question the honesty of their opponents while emphasizing their own fortitude and work ethic. Candidates may also emphasize the excessive wealth of their opponents as a way to show how they are out of touch with the average middle-class American.
Privacy Policy. Skip to main content. Campaigns and Elections. Search for:. How Voters Decide. Party Identification Party identification is typically determined by the political party that an individual most commonly supports. Learning Objectives Discuss the central features that make up party identification. Key Takeaways Key Points Party identification refers to the political party with which an individual identifies.
In the United States, political parties consist of three parts: the party as government, the party as organization, and the party as electorate. Key Terms partisan : An adherent to a party or faction. Learning Objectives Describe issue voting and its relationship to larger trends in the electorate. Key Takeaways Key Points Issue voting occurs when voters base their decisions on how the candidates address political issues.
The rise in issue voting can be traced to increased polarization between the Democratic and Republican parties, which has increased numbers of independents. Key Terms party voting : The type of voting that describes when voters cast their vote based on their self-identification with a particular political party.
Key Takeaways Key Points Increasing numbers of independents and problems with issue voting have made the personal traits of candidates an important factor in how voters decide.
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